The WP7 Fragmentation Challenge

Since the announcement of WP7 I’ve seen and spoken to various people who are excited about the WP7 platform. While I’ve been skeptical of the device from the jump, I do look forward to the release. My skepticism comes from MS not learning from other platforms mistakes or successes (no multi-threading, expensive developer fees, etc).However, this post is not about those skepticism’s or anything of the sort.

This post is more a less a question to the WP7 team. If anyone who has any knowledge in regards to the topic below – PLEASE COMMENT! 🙂

What is OS/Device Fragmentation?

I could spend all day describing this, but here it is in under 20 of my own words –

Device and OS fragmentation is the result of multiple devices released on various carriers under various OS releases.

This is best explained by From the presentations and content that I’ve read online (sorry, no sources) I’ve heard that the WP7 will not have fragmentation issues because Microsoft will be in charge of the OS updates. This is all great in theory, but let us think about this for a moment. There are some conceptual flaws with this approach and if Microsoft has solved these problems then I’m sure Apple and Google would like to know how or what they did.

OS Releases and Carriers

I have a few questions when it comes to release schedules and carriers. This subject is near and dear to my heart because after developing 25+ Android apps with over 1.6 million total installs I have a user base that spans versions 1.5 – 2.2 (and custom ROMS). Maintaining apps to work across all versions is crucial for my user base. When an update arrives I need to know about it. Each phone OS has its own version of OS release schedule as such:

Android

Carrier based release schedule. This means that the carrier (T-Mobile, Sprint, etc) all determine when the phone’s are going to get the updates. Sometimes these updates can be 6 months AFTER the update has been released to the Android open source project.

Why does it take so long for Android releases? This is purely speculation based upon tons of reading into the subject. No one has ever said, black and white, that this is the issue. But in my opinion, it makes sense …

• OS Branding – Some of the OS’s (such as the T-Mobile 3G Slide) has the HTC Sense UI (3rd party add-on UI for Android) with the Espresso UI on top of it. Expresso (from what I know) is a T-Mobile skin over the top of the HTC Sense. So imagine this – Android 2.x comes out, its the brand new kid on the block. Before T-Mobile can update their 3G Slide  phones they have to make sure that HTC Sense will work on the new version of the OS. Therefore they have to wait for HTC to do the development there. Its possible that HTC could add and/or remove features from HTC Sense.. Once that is complete, they have to make sure the Espresso UI will work (as well as add new features) to it. If HTC changed Sense and now Espresso is broken, T-Mobile’s development team has to fix it, as well as then release a new product that is solid. Each time something needs to happen, it adds days (if not weeks or months ) to the release cycle. Therefore, some phone are not getting updates for MONTHS because the FREAKING UI needs to be updated. This is why I believe that all Android phones should contain the STOCK Android UI. I have the Nexus One and it has stock Android on it. I love it. When I use a phone with Sense, I cannot stand it. Its so flashy and craptastic that I don’t want to use it. If more companies used the stock vanilla Android OS install these OS Branding feature issues would most likely disappear.
• Technical Support – The tech support teams that must support these devices must be trained. More on this later , in the WP7 section.

PROS – The Android ecosystem can develop as fast as it humanely possibly can. Problems are exposed quickly (such as custom UI issues and upgrade compatibility, etc) and inferior design and customizations are killed off in favor of remaining up to date with the OS release cycle. Everyone always wants the “new stuff”. No one wants an old school phone. New releases are so far on schedule for about every 6 months it seems (if not sooner for small updates).

CONS – Since the OS’s are released so fast, some people are left with a really poor experience. They were told at the time of purchase that “Yeah, this is the best phone, blah blah blah.”, just so the salesman at the phone store could hit his sales numbers. In the end, they’re stuck with a pile of garbage phone. The quick release cycle by-product becomes one of the platforms downfalls.

iPhone

Carrier and OS based release schedule. When the iPhone has a new OS release its timed in accordance with AT&T and their schedules (from what I’ve read/been told). As you might have seen, major iPhone OS releases are not very often. So far they are yearly – looking to be at half the speed as the Android ecosystem. I’m not exactly sure why this is the case, but it is what it is.

PROS – The OS seems pretty tight when released. Fanboys and users alike love the device and the OS udpates.

CONS – It doesn’t work reliably as a phone (I’ve heard this from more iPhone users than I can count). Which is kind of important as the word “phone” is in the name of the product. Slow release cycle means that eventually Android will be the ones by-passing Apple in releases and functionality. This however, is also a pro for both OS’s because they will then be truly competing for feature sets for market share.

WP7

The Microsoft folks have been saying that the phone will be updated from Microsoft on a release schedule that they can set. The problem is, I don’t see this being a reality. Why? Here are the issues:

• Carrier Pushback – If you’re anything like me, you cant stand your phone company half the time. Long wait times, terrible customer service, excuses for downtime, dropped calls, you name it, we’ve all been there. If there is one thing I know from dealing with telecom companies in many forms over the years is that they DO NOT LIKE being told what to do with their telecom infrastructure/etc. I’m not sure how Microsoft is going to tell T-Mobile, Sprint, Verizon, etc that “Hey, on day X we’re going to push out an update. Deal with it.”. I don’t see that happening at all. Carriers are going to want some sort of long, drawn out window of OS roll-out so they can prepare. Which brings me to …
• Carrier Technical Support – When you have a problem with an iPhone people usually go to an Apple store or they call AT&T. Android users call their carrier, and I assume that WP7 users will also call their carrier. The problem is, Microsoft CANNOT push out a new OS until the carriers technical support teams are trained on that new OS. This is the exact same problem that Android has (or had, I guess). To solve this problem, Android left it to the carrier to update the OS. While this is problematic for the user, its a perfect case scenario for an Open Source Mobile OS. The OS can develop at its own release speed (very quickly). Therefore the Android ecosystem can now evolve at its own pace. If the carrier wants to keep up a competitive market share of phones in their name at a particular level of Android OS, they have to make sure they can release as fast as possible with the Android OS. If they don’t the Android OS development will continue and users will leave carrier A and go to carrier B to get that new “Super Phone” that is coming out. The WP7 pundits do not talk about this. In order for Microsoft to release a new version of the OS, ALL carriers must agree to a release date so they can train their staff accordingly (sales staff included).

PROS – The phones are on the same OS. I don’t know of any other pros yet since the OS has yet to be released.

CONS – Carrier coagulation. Getting all carriers to agree to specific terms across the board is going to be a nightmare for Microsoft.

Thoughts

What does all of this mean? – In my professional opinion  it means that WP7 is a cross enterprise (think carrier) mobile operating system that will have a very slow release cycle. Yes, Microsoft might control when the OS is released, but I feel it will be VERY VERY slow in release cycles. Why? Each telecom carrier is a red tape bureaucratic Goliath nightmare to deal with. Imagine taking not one, not two, but  n-level of these monster companies and having them ALL adhere to a release cycle. When have you EVER seen that happen? I never have in my time in the industry. I truly believe that this is why the iPhone is still strictly on AT&T. Apple recognizes this issue and is not sure how to solve it elegantly, yet.

I’d love someone from Microsoft to answer the question of

How often to you plan to release and how are you going to handle inter-carrier OS release requirements?

The reason I want to know the answer to this question is because I know that at some point Microsoft will have a new release of the WP7 OS available and it will not ship to the phones for another 6-12 months because of the carrier support coagulation.

If you’re from Microsoft, or have a good theory on the answer to this question – please leave a comment. 🙂